Axonics Risk/Reward Ratio Is Less Favorable, Analyst Says While Downgrading Stock

  • Needham downgraded Axonics Inc AXNX from Buy to Hold.
  • The analyst said urologist survey responses suggest the company may have difficulty driving the upside to the consensus 2023 revenue estimate. 
  • AXNX looks likely to gain market share, with respondents expecting AXNX SNM devices to increase from 37.4% of their procedures over the last 12 months (LTM) to 41.6% over the next 12 months (NTM). 
  • Related: FDA Approves Axonics' Recharge-Free Sacral Neuromodulation System.
  • However, respondents expect their SNM procedure volumes to increase by 2% over the NTM. 
  • The survey implies that AXNX could see SNM growth of 14% over the NTM, which compares to the consensus 2023 estimated SNM growth of 24%. 
  • Respondents expect their bulking agent procedure volumes to increase by 21% over the NTM, which compares to the consensus 2023 Bulkamid growth estimate of 28%. 
  • "We also believe that the F15 product cycle is primarily reflected in AXNX shares at this point and do not expect any additional primary product cycles in the next 12-18 months."
  • Needham says that AXNX shares are now fairly valued.
  • Price Action: AXNX shares are down 4.83% at $69.01 on the last check Monday.
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