Short-lived Rally

Short-lived Rally

MARKET UPDATE

Global fixed income and equity markets rallied yesterday on UK intervention

  • Strong, broad rally

  • Short-lived?

  • BOE's move doesn't address fundamental challenges

  • Euro stocks pared gains

  • Bonds creeping higher

Cracks in housing

  • Avg 30Y mortgage 6.52%

  • How much home will $2500 get you?

Source: @M_McDonough

  • No wonder mortgage apps are down and purchase index down 29% from same time last year

  • Pending home sales down

    • 80% of pending sales become existing sales in 2 months

    • Slowdown in existing sales ahead

Source: RSM

Big jobs numbers

  • Initial jobless claims 193k vs 215k expected

  • Labor market remains strong, no signs of real weakness

Crude   $82

  • OPEC+ meets next week (Oct 5)

  • $90 a barrel appears to be price target

  • Production cuts ahead?

Source: LPL Reserach

Nord Stream update

  • 4th leak discovered

  • Gas still bubbling to surface

  • Location of exact leaks still unknown

  • Sabotage still suspected

Apple AAPL

Retail capitulation?

  • Retail sold net $2.9 billion past week

  • Second largest outflows since March 2020

  • Bulk of outflows from single stocks

Source: JPMorgan Retail Radar

Earnings

  • Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY

  • Rite-Aid RAD

  • CarMax KMX

  • Worthington Industries WOR

He has 1.8MM subscribers on YouTube and…

👉 his own place

👉 a good job

👉 doesn’t talk to ex

👉 a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality companies and not unprofitable tech stocks!

Watch my conversation with Meet Kevin on yesterday’s Bullpen!

CRYPTO UPDATE

Bitcoin has been outperforming over the past week

Source: Daily Shot

Potential regulations catalysts

  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chairman Rostin Behnam thinks regulation will boost crypto:

“a massive opportunity for institutional inflows that will only occur if there’s a regulatory structure.”

  • Behnam supports legislation that would make CFTC overseer of crypto industry

  • If traded in CFTC-regulated market, said Bitcoin could “double in price”

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