Thursday's Market Minute: Breakout Or Breakdown For /ES?

Bulls hoping for new all-time highs this week have so far faced disappointment, as S&P 500 futures have traded in a relatively narrow range since Sunday’s open. The /ES is down less than 1% on the week, but some recent developments worth noting include: the contract closed below both the 3900 level as well as the 21-day Exponential Moving Average yesterday; it completed a bearish Parabolic SAR crossover (used by traders to show trend direction) yesterday; and also a bearish MACD crossover on Tuesday, which suggests strengthening bearish momentum. In the short-term, the /ES has established a range between roughly 3960 and 3880.

Keep in mind that periods of low volatility are often a portent of higher volatility to come, and movement beyond either of these areas could show a breakout developing. This morning’s price action is pointing toward further downside. Many traders likely were watching last week’s lows at 3875 for support, but the /ES already fell below this point in today’s premarket hours. Other important levels to the downside include the 50-day Simple Moving Average near 3864 (which was also already tested this morning), the lower Linear Regression 50% Channel line near 3843, and the 64-day EMA around 3822.

Photo by Patrick Weissenberger on Unsplash