Outbound Tender Rejections Continue To Climb Through Thanksgiving

Outbound tender volumes (OTVI.USA) fell by 11.89% week-over-week. Much of this drop can be attributed to the timing of Thanksgiving. Last year Thanksgiving fell on November 22, which has skewed year-over-year comparables for the past two weeks. 

Nationally, outbound tender volumes fell 4.73% year-over-year this week. Month-over-month volumes were down 12.34%, as the Thanksgiving holiday has created tough weekly, monthly and yearly comparables for this week's tendered load volume data. 

All 15 markets FreightWaves tracks were negative on a week-over-week basis. Markets with the smallest losses in OTVI.USA were, Houston, Texas (-2.34%), Memphis, Tennessee (-3.39%) and Laredo, Texas (-8.75%) The steepest week-over-week drops included Indianapolis, Indiana (-25.86%), Cleveland, Ohio (-23.83%) and Savannah, Georgia (-21.76%). 

SONAR: OTVI.USA (National outbound tender volumes in blue, 60-day moving average in red)

SONAR: OTVIY.USA (National outbound tender volumes year-over-year percentage change)

National Rejection Rates Rise This Week Continue Breaking Out To The Upside

This week's run-up to Thanksgiving gave outbound tender rejections a lift, finishing up at 7.94%. This is 183 basis points (bps) above last week's finish. 

OTRI.USA has now broken above the 6% level for two consecutive weeks. This is the first time outbound tender rejections have remained above 6% for consecutive weeks since March 2019. 

On a month-over-month basis, rejections are up 194 bps, while year-over-year it is down 546 bps compared to 13.4% at this time last year. On a trending basis, OTRI.USA continues to strengthen, having risen in 12 out of the last 15 weeks, with tender rejections rising off of the 3.75% bottom experienced in mid-August. National tender rejections have now moved comfortably above their 60-day moving average by 44.89%.

Year-over-year comparables for national rejection rates are still extraordinarily difficult due to the daunting 2018 numbers when rejections never fell below double digits. As a result, on a year-over-year percentage basis, OTRI.USA is down 45%. As can be seen in the chart below, comparisons do not start to ease until the January and February 2020 time frame.

SONAR: OTRI.USA (National outbound tender rejections in blue, 60-day moving average in red)

Image by Jeff Chabot from Pixabay