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Trump Vs. Mexico: Expert Explains Which States Are The Biggest Losers

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Trump Vs. Mexico: Expert Explains Which States Are The Biggest Losers

President Donald Trump seems to be making good on his promise to build a wall between the United States and Mexico. While many of his voters are happy to see him deliver, many other U.S. citizens are worried sick about the consequences this will bring.

In turn, the concern about a potential trade battle between the United States and Mexico brings up one question among sundry Americans: Who would be most affected?

Fortunately, personal-finance website WalletHub recently published a report on its in-depth analysis of the states that would be most impacted by a trade war with Mexico.

Keep in mind that "Mexico is the third-largest trade partner of the US, with exports and imports combined totaling $583.6 billion in 2015, as well as sustaining about 1.1 million jobs last year,” Jill Gonzalez, author of the report, told Benzinga.

Determining The Impact

In order to find out which states would be most distressed by a trade war with Mexico, the study took into account:

  • Which percentage of the state’s total exports went to Mexico.
  • The value of these exports to Mexico compared to the total GDP.
  • Which percentage of total imports to the state came from Mexico.
  • The value of these imports from Mexico compared to the total GDP.
  • The number of jobs supported by trade with Mexico in relation to the total amount of jobs.

Related Link: The Most Satisfying Jobs In America: Economist Explains What Makes Workers Happy

State By State

So, without further ado, here are the states that would be affected the most and least by a trade battle with the country south of the border.

 

States Most Affected by Trade War with Mexico

 

States Least Affected by Trade War with Mexico

 

1

Texas

 

42

West Virginia

 

2

Arizona

 

43

New York

 

3

Michigan

 

44

Idaho

 

4

New Mexico

 

45

Oregon

 

5

Kentucky

 

46

Washington

 

6

Tennessee

 

47

Montana

 

7

Utah

 

48

Wyoming

 

8

Missouri

 

49

Maine

 

9

Alabama

 

50

District of Columbia

 

10

Iowa

 

51  

Alaska

While interesting, this ranking only provides a partial snapshot of the situation. Also worth noticing:

  • New Mexico’s exports to Mexico represent 44.63 percent of its total exports, making it the most dependent state. In contrast, only 0.1 percent of Hawaii’s exports go the neighboring country.
  • Arizona would have to find another place to shop, as more than 38 percent of its imports come from Mexico. The District of Columbia, on the other hand, only gets 0.77 percent of its imported products from the country led by Enrique Peña Nieto.
  • Exports to Mexico account for 5.8 percent of Texas’ GDP.
  • While the District of Columbia receives the lowest amount of imports from Mexico, it boasts the “highest share of jobs supported by trade with Mexico, 6.88 percent.” Meanwhile, Oklahoma has the lowest rate, at 2.97 percent.

Addressing Doubts

After going over the report, we were still curious. So, we asked some follow-up questions:

Benzinga: Are there any particular industries or companies that would be affected the most?

Gonzalez: Agriculture and auto industries would be most affected.

Benzinga: How did you calculate the number of jobs supported by the trade with Mexico?

Gonzalez: We divided the number of jobs supported by trade with Mexico by total state employment. Data for this specific metric is from the The Wilson Center & BLS.

Benzinga: Will states with more exports to Mexico be more affected that states with high import levels? Which one is easier to replace?

Gonzalez: The states with the highest number of exports to Mexico are typically those with the highest imports from Mexico, as well. It's a symbiotic relationship. Many times, especially within the auto and appliance industries, one really cannot survive without the other (at least, not cost-effectively or efficiently).

Benzinga: Did you find a correlation between how affected by a trade war with Mexico each state would be and which party won in the election?

Gonzalez: We did not correlate the results with the elections.

Image Credit: By Repovesi (Wikimapia) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Posted-In: News Emerging Markets Politics Events Global Econ #s Exclusives Markets Best of Benzinga

 

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