Supermoons, Markets And The Not-So-Super Correlation

Moon gazing would be worth the effort Monday, as the earth's one and only natural satellite is set to shine the brightest in about 70 years. Now, when science has taught us early on that the moon does not have light of its own and it merely basks under the light reflected from the sun, how can the moon shine? And does the appearance of supermoon and the markets have any kind of correlation? We strive to answer these questions below:

What Is A Supermoon?

The term "supermoon" refers to a moon that is at perigee, or when it is closest to the earth when moving along its orbit. It was first defined by astrologer Richard Nolle. Nolle's first definition of a supermoon went like this: a new or full moon with the moon at or near (within 90 percent of) its closest approach to earth in a given orbit.

This would mean all three protagonists — earth, moon and sun — are all in a line, with the moon in nearest approach to the Earth. The moon's orbital around the earth is elliptical, and when it is in the perigee, it is closer to the earth than when it is in the apogee by 50,000 km.

What Makes The Moon 'Super?'

A supermoon is about 14 percent bigger than a "normal" moon and is 30 percent brighter. However, the hitch for someone ordinary as you and me is that the difference may be too difficult to spot, given the likelihood that it can be masked by clouds or the glare of urban light.

Frequency Of Supermoon; Triple Delight In 2016

Since supermoons combine both the features, namely the moon being full and the closest to the earth, supermoons recur in cycles of 14 lunar months, as 14 lunar months equals 15 returns to perigee. 2016 is accorded the special privilege of having three full moons that complied with the definition of a supermoon — October, November and December being the three. The November 14 moon takes the cake in the being the closest of the three.

How Close Is November 14's Supermoon?

The November 14 supermoon will be a full moon at a distance of 356,509 kilometers from the earth. The previous closest was in January 26, 1948. And in the future, a moon closer than the November 14 moon would occur on November 25, 2034, at a distance of 356,448 kilometers.

The November full moon is called the Beaver Moon to denote the time when hunters set beaver traps to secure enough fur before waters froze. This follows the Hunter's Moon of October and the Harvest Moon of September, all named to indicate seasonal changes.

When And How To Watch For The Supermoon In The Americas

NASA advises that the best time to watch the November 14 supermoon is before sunrise at 6.22 a.m. EST on Monday, November 14, although it was fairly clear on Sunday as well. The peak of the full phase will be reached by 8:52 a.m. ET.

Supermoon Dates Since 2010 And How Markets Fared In Session Following Them

Taking the performance of the S&P 500 Index as a proxy for the broader market performance, this is how the markets did in the past:

• January 30, 2010: (+)1.4 percent.
• March 19, 2011: (+)1.50 percent.
• May 6, 2012: (+)0.04 percent.
• June 23, 2013: (-)1.22 percent.
• August 10, 2014: (+)0.28 percent.
• September 28, 2015: (-)2.57 percent.

From the numbers, it doesn't look like the supermoon has super correlation with the markets, and given that trading is dictated by a multiplicity of factors, both macro and micro, it is tough to establish a link with a vaguely related development such as this. So, unmindful of its implication for the markets, sit back and enjoy an event that could be bettered only in 2034.