The current estimate may incite investor sentiment and speculation that some big automakers such as General Motors Company GM and Ford Motor Company F are likely to report a drop in unit sales for the third quarter.
TrueCar expects seasonally adjusted annualized rate for light vehicle sales of 17.4 million units for September compared to 18.0 million recorded in the year-ago month. In a preview, Citi sees auto sales running "in the mid-17 million range." Although the sales could fall on a year-over-year basis, Citi analysts see gain on a month-over-month basis as August witnessed 16.9 million-unit sales.
Despite the unit-wide sales weakness, the average transaction prices remained strong driven by luxury and SUV vehicles on demand from consumers. While non-luxury, mass-market brands would likely fall 2.6 percent, luxury models decline could be 0.2 percent, according to TrueCar.
The September sales trend could suggest that some of the automakers might report a drop in overall unit sales for the third quarter. For instance, General Motors and Ford Motor reported sales drop of 1.9 percent and 3 percent respectively in July. Similarly, in August, these two companies suffered a drop of 5 percent and 8.4 percent respectively.
For September, TrueCar estimates GM and Ford to suffer 0.5 percent and 9.6 percent drop in unit sales. The continuous drop in the three-month period suggests these two are likely to report a drop in unit sales as far as American market is concerned.
TrueCar forecast for other automakers is as follows:
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV FCAU could suffer 6.1 percent sales drop.
- Honda Motor Co Ltd (ADR) HMC might report 0.9 percent sales growth.
- Hyundai Motor America likely to report 3.1 percent fall in sales.
- Nissan Motor Co Ltd (ADR) NSANY might announce 0.6 percent fall in units.
- Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) TM likely to gain 0.3 percent.
- Volkswagen AG (ADR) VLKAY could suffer 4.3 percent drop in unit sales.
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