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Research In Motion Preview: More Losses, Fewer Surprises

Research In Motion Preview: More Losses, Fewer Surprises

BlackBerry 10 is roughly one month away from release. Before then, Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) must reveal how it has performed in a quarter where its most recent products include a 4G PlayBook and smartphones that have been out for a year.

Despite the lack of fresh releases, RIM has nearly doubled its value over the last three months, rising 97 percent. Investors are particularly intrigued by the promise and potential of BB10. Investors have also been inspired by the analyst praise the firm received this fall.

That praise is not universal, however. Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry recently stated that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has a generational lead over RIM.

"Presently, there are more than 500 million [Android] phones in the market and more than 700,000 applications in Google [Play]," said Chowdhry. "Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iOS has more than 200 million phones in the market and have more than 740,000 applications in Apple App Store. These numbers (devices and applications) from Google and Apple are so huge, that it will make the Android and Apple devices very sustainable and enduring in their respective ecosystems."

Despite Google and Apple's dominance, there may be enough room for a third player to thrive. RIM currently holds the number-three spot by default, but that could quickly change in 2013. A study by ChangeWave Research revealed that the release of Windows Phone 8 could have a significant impact on the smartphone market. In time, it might even be able to overtake BlackBerry as the third most popular mobile OS.

National Bank Financial recently downgraded its rating of RIM from Outperform to Sector Perform. J.P. Morgan reiterated its Not Rated status on fears of weak market demand.

RIM's market share declined to just four percent in the United States this year. The company is expected to report a third-quarter loss of 35 cents per share on revenue of $2.65 billion.

Despite its recent gains, shares of RIM are still down more than 12 percent year-to-date. The BlackBerry maker has lost more than 76 percent of its value since December 20, 2010.

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