It is Bubblicious and time to Inflate the Commodities too $ES_F 1674 x 1623

Today's Economic News:

There is a lot of auctions in the US today that should give us a decent look at fear.

I was reading through yesterday's numbers and loving the housing boom here as we are lifting off.  In case you don't think something has changed, not only has the US Stock-markets inflated back to all-time highs, another 16TR$ asset class is also starting to inflate: (Case-Schiller Y/Y numbers)

That makes us all a little bit richer.  Towns and cities can grow tax bases again and we can take out equity loans.  It is all stimulus based with ultra-low bubblicious interest rates, of course, and there is a bed in rehab waiting for us but in the mean time, enjoy the ride.

Quote of the Day:
I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.
–Winston Churchill

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

Our usually over-enthusiastic high/low ratio chart is showing signs of breaking down.  Not really enjoying yesterday's bounce.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1674
Long:  1623

Now it is getting interesting.

We are leaving up our 1674 high call, only it that it makes us look good on the chart.

I think it was 1672.25 on the high yesterday before gravity took over.  We like the 1623 landing pad, course there is an awful look of numbers in between including that 1635 double bottom and 3% pull back number.   There is plenty of fight left in the market and we think it will play out over the next couple of weeks. 

We think the low will get hit before the high and here is why.  I have been working hard on turning some raw closing imbalance data supplied from a group on the NYSE into an indicator.  This gathered early imbalance data gives a look at how the last hour of the closing auction is shaping up.

Here is yesterday's close, I know it is a little blurry.

I added a sanpshot feature to the indicator and yesterday starting at 3:10pm,  you can see that the early data was showing a slight buy side advantage and as we moved closer to the close the sell side started coming in strong.   That setup for a nice closing trade that paid dividends all night long.

I share this with you because it is cool, and I have had a real advantage of working with this data over the last month and am starting to develop a feel for how it moves.  We want to watch now for closing follow-through.  A sign that a call for an Exodus is about to happen.

Stay Tuned.

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

Dollar has failed to scale to new heights, we want to watch 83.42 in here for a hold if that fails we would expect some resistance at 83.15 area.  It is looking a bit ragged in here, but the dollar can turn and run whenever it wants.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

Wrong.

We had 116 as the line in the sand.  We need a timeout on the TLT now to rethink and to get over a really bad call.

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Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Time to visit oversold and to stop teasing.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Follower.  No useful data here.

Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

It is green on the tip, so we will look for follow through.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

This is a warning flag for the bulls.  Waning interests in new highs.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender -  McClellan Summation Index:

bearish, we want that 15DMA to start to trend downside now too.

Long Term Trender -  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish-neutral remains the call on this longer term trender. There is a ton of upside momentum left so it shouldn't be pretty.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

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