EUR/USD Placed At A Critical Juncture Ahead Of The ECB

The EUR/USD pair jumped back above the 1.1800 handle on Wednesday on general US Dollar weakness, despite surprisingly stronger durable goods orders and new home sales data. Meanwhile, the shared currency was also supported by upbeat German IFO business confidence survey. 

The major continued its move higher through the Asian session on Thursday as investors now look forward to the highly anticipated ECB monetary policy decision, due later during the European trading session. The central bank is expected to keep rates on hold, but at the same time announce the tapering of its QE program, currently at €60 billion. Also in focus will be the post-meeting press conference, where comments by ECB President Mario Draghi will be closely scrutinized to determine the pair's near-term trajectory. 

From the US, the releases of usual weekly jobless claims, goods trade balance, prelim wholesale inventories and pending home sales data are likely to be overshadowed by ECB-led volatility. 

Technically, the pair is placed near a short-term descending trend-line hurdle, which is closely followed by another key resistance at the 50-day SMA, currently near mid-1.1800s. A decisive break through the mentioned barriers would invalidate a descending triangular formation and would eventually pave way for extension of the pair's up-move towards reclaiming the 1.1900 handle en-route to the next major resistance near the 1.1940-50 region. 

Alternatively, a rejection slide from the current resistance area is likely to find immediate support near the 1.1765-60 region. A convincing break below this immediate support is likely to accelerate the fall towards the 1.1700 handle before the pair challenges an important horizontal support near the 1.1675-70 region, coinciding with the 100-day SMA.