Crypto bettors on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, think former First Lady Michelle Obama's chances to enter the 2024 presidential race — and potentially win the presidency — are rising.
What Happened: Obama's chances to be the next U.S. President have quadrupled, rising from 2% on Jan.30 to 8% on the morning of Feb. 1.
Currently, shares are changing hands around seven cents on the dollar.
The 350% increase comes on significant trading volume: $3.1 million worth of Obama shares have been traded, compared to $2.4 million of President Joe Biden shares and $3.7 million of Donald Trump shares. The total trading volume on the "Presidential Election Winner 2024" market already stands at $34 million, with long-time users of the site expecting a total volume of $1 billion by market end.
The biggest holder of Obama "Yes" shares — tellingly named "SLEEPYJOE" — stands to win $1.2 million if she were to become President.
Interest in prediction markets has picked up significantly, with Polymarket recording a record $50 million in trading volume in January 2024.
U.S. users are blocked from the site due to a CFTC order.
Read Also: A Teenager Made Over $1M On $JUP Airdrop: 'I Invested Time, Resources Into This'
Why It Matters: Traders' increased interest in Ms. Obama's chances may be traced back to an op-ed in the New York Post, titled "Don't be shocked if Michelle Obama sneaks her way into 2024 race."
The speculation was later picked up by Megyn Kelly, citing unsubstantiated rumors that Obama could be "subbed in" for Biden at the Democratic Convention in May.
Political analyst Mark Halperin pushed back against the rumors in a segment on Newsmax, saying "she's not interested in politics, she's not interested in being President, she will not run."
Either way, continued speculation on the prospects of the former First Lady will likely attract further interest from prediction market traders.
What's Next: While the Presidential Election Winner market attracts the most interest, several derivative markets have also sprung up. New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is the front-runner in the Republican VP nominee market, with traders putting her chances at 20%.
Now Read: Biden's $140M War Chest Towers Over GOP Rivals, RNC's Cash Reserves Less Than Half The DNC’s
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