Market Overview

What to Watch For: Next Week's Data Docket


Next week is a crazy week in terms of data releases. On Monday, the data docket is rather lackluster (do note, US markets are closed, but investors who trade non-US assets will still use this). Overnight, we will get the Italian Business Confidence Survey and after the close we get the Japanese unemployment rate, Japanese household spending, and Japanese retail sales. Also, we get German CPI, which will be closely watched, as any uptick in inflation will make investors worry that Germany may give up on bailing out the Eurozone.

On Tuesday, the data starts to pick up. Spanish retail sales and Greek PPI will set the mood of the market overnight, but investors will be closely watching the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index release. It is due out at 8:30 and the market is expecting a -2.8% print year-over-year, as compared to the prior reading of -3.5%. At the same time, we get the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which is expected to come in 69.3 vs. previous 69.2, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday brings us hoards of European data in the overnight session, but none of them seem too important. The real data picks up at 7:00 am with MBA Mortgage Applications and at 7:30 am is the Challenger Job Cuts Survey. At 10:00 am, we get Pending Home Sales. The previous reading was +4.1%. Other than that, the only other major data point is the Japanese Industrial Production after the close. This number is always closely watched, as Japan is the world's third largest economy.

Thursday's schedule of releases is much more jam-packed. The first indicator is the ADP Employment Report, which is due out at 8:15 am. The market is looking for a reading of +140,000 private sector jobs added. At 8:30, the market gets a big number, the US GDP reading. Consensus is looking for a reading of 1.9% year-over-year growth, as compared to the initial estimate of +2.2%. Jobless claims are also due out at that time, with the market looking for a flat reading week-over-week of 370,000. Also, Sandra Pinalto of the Fed is set to speak. At 9:45 am, the Chicago PMI is to be released, and it is expected to come in at 57 vs. the previous reading of 56.2. At 10:30 and 11:00 are the EIA's Nat Gas report and Petroleum Status report, respectively, and after the close, at 4:30, we get the Fed's Balance Sheet Report.

Friday is also a busy day, with motor vehicle sales being released all day. Also, the monthly Employment Situation Report is due out at 8:30 am. The market is expecting a +150,000 reading vs. last month's +115,000 reading. We also get the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10 am, which is a leading indicator of GDP growth (vs. the GDP report which is backward-looking). The market is looking for a reading of 53.9 vs. the previous reading of 54.8. Good luck and good trading.

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