$es_f 1314 is Worthy of a Short $Study

Around the Globe

Asia – CLOSED
• Shanghai (China) +1.00%
• Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.84%
• Nikkei (Japan)-0.01%

Europe as of 7:14am EDT

Today's Economic News:

• DAX (Germany) +0.42%
• FTSE ("UK") +0.67%

Not much on the docket for news today.  We will watch the 10am Euro consumer confidence numbers for an indirect effect from Europe.

Quote of the day:
All the President is, is a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing and kicking people to get them to do what they are supposed to do anyway. – Harry S Truman

Current Allocations from our room:

Performance Month to Date from our room:

Market Sectors to Year to Date:

Current Breadth Readings:

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

Breadth continues for the bulls in a nice upside grind.

We like it short right on the open today in this 1314/1318 area.  We think a sideways consolidation pattern is setting up and the bottom of that range needs to be put in, which may be no lower than 1300.  We like it short better than long.

Our target for a correction is 1288 area with a serious looks at 1300 and 1295 for the long side.

Our intermediate look 3 to 6 months out remains bullish based on the broad strength and duration of the rally.  We will accumulate longs whenever the markets give us a chance.  There is a tier of second chance buyers lining up and any pullback will reveal their conviction.

US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

The US Dollar will not rally with the markets and remains blocked from upside movement.  A rally from this 79.77 area up to the 81.50 area with a failure will put in a head and shoulders pattern.  A break of 79.75 will have us looking in the 78.63 area for strength. As yield and interest rates rise the dollar should become more attractive, especially if it is the result of a stronger US economy and Euro weakness. We are looking for another good entry long.

We have put in three decent downside days on TLT now, testing the 116.80 50% fib level.  A break here will give us more confidence of the call down to 111.

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