Tests Prove That Ignorance Fuels Democracy

A new report claims (through science) that, for democracy to truly work, there has to be a level of ignorance apparent within the people. According to io9, Princeton researcher Iain Couzin and his team have put forward a solid argument that, should all of the electorate be full informed, the result would be chaos, with a multitude of splinter groups sprouting up all over the place. Rather, for democracy to really work, most people have to be fairly blinded by ignorance, allowing single issues or party loyalty to carry their vote. The article states that, “Couzin and his team argue for what we might call a sweet spot of ignorance. There needs to be just enough people who know anything about the issues to act as leaders for everyone else, but the majority disintegrates if there are too many viewpoints pulling in different directions. And while that seems to pretty aptly describe the last decade (at least) of American political discourse, I'd feel better if I knew just how the researchers arrived at their conclusions.” Well, much of the research was conducted by examining fish (despite the fact that, at the time of writing, fish could not vote). According to the article, Couzin found from watching fish that, “if you have twenty uninformed people and only one or two with strong opinions, there's too much noise and the whole process breaks down. And, of course, all this really shows is that uninformed people are necessary for the smooth operation of majority rule - and while the will of the majority is a part of a working democracy, there are plenty of situations where the more passionate minority actually has the best idea.” How does this apply to the world of trading? Well, it occurs to us that, if the masses will apply their vote based on popularity and their own ignorance, could they not trade, or could not consumers, purchase products, for the same reason. In fact, we know this goes on. Why do people flock to see a terrible Hollywood movie when better indie movies struggle to break even? Why do people watch American Idol and buy Katy Perry albums or tracks? Why do people tune in to Jersey Shore while great scriptwriters are out of work? Why do some brands become cool despite a complete lack of quality? Because people tend to do what they are told by smart ad execs and bully-boy marketing tactics. If you would like to be alerted to market updates as they come out in real-time, signup for a free trial of Benzinga Pro's premium news service. So really, all that Couzin has said is that people tend to be sheep, sticking with what they know or with what seems acceptable to everyone else. Why would an election for a political position be any different to an X-Factor season finale?
ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that the people will buy whatever is put in front of them might want to consider the following trades:
  • Apple AAPL – let's face it, people will but a VHS player if it is painted white and has an apple on it. Not that Apple's products are not sound, but their fans are now rabid for every product.
  • McDonalds MCD is another example of a company that can put out anything with the prefix “Mc” and it will sell. Look out for the McDogburger.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that consumers are smarter than that may consider alternative positions:
  • Google's GOOG Chrome platform has been better than Firefox for a while, and this month it finally took the crown in terms of number of users. Smart public. Smart, smart public.
  • People seem to have stopped playing those terrible Zynga ZNGA games, like Citiville, Farmville and the like. It just went public, and it is down to $9 already. Try creating something of genuine quality.
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