Analyst Sees This 'Specialty Pharma' Stock Stuck Until Prescription Trends Improve - Collegium Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:COLL)

Last week, Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc COLL reported Q2 results—the first full quarter with BioDelivery—and beat revenue and EBITDA estimates.
HC Wainwright has downgraded the stock to Neutral with no price target vs. prior Buy with a $29 target.
"We applaud the recent financial results but have been disappointed by Xtampza and Belbuca Rx trends, which are below our projections, down slightly Y/Y, and trajectories currently flat at best," the analyst writes.
The analyst believes that 2022 guidance is achievable but thinks investors care most about 2023 and beyond and will remain in "show me" mode for Rx growth and the Xtampza net price jump.
The analyst notes that acquired Belbuca was surprisingly strong, beating estimates by 14-15% on a step-up in value-per-Rx as Collegium modified legacy co-pay assistance.
Xtampza also beat despite light Rx, with better than guided gross-to-net discounts (GTNs), but management reiterates the expected 2H GTN worsening. HC Wainwright models Xtampza net price up ~40% in 2023.
M&A remains a top priority, with Collegium looking for commercial assets with over $150 million potential.
COLL trades at cheap multiples, but Wainwright notes Nucynta and Belbuca 2025 and 2027 patent cliffs.
Belbuca generic 2nd-challenger Alvogen—currently patent-ruling blocked until end-2032—could have its appeal heard by year-end, raising new investor concerns.
Price Action: COLL shares are down 6.07% at $18.88 during the market session on the last check Monday.

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