Happy Thanksgiving...Now Get to Work!

So yesterday was Thanksgiving and I am very thankful for many things in life. I realize I have many things that most people don't, including a job that allows me to take the rest of the week off so I can enjoy the warm southern weather...and yes, I said SOUTHERN, not WESTERN!

Still, there appear to be some people in this country who, despite having more than others, are still ungrateful for some of the things they have, including their jobs. I might have missed this in class one day, but I don't recall a section in the constitution that talks about everybody having the right to not work yesterday/last night/today. It's funny how the "99%" has quickly broken off, to where those with jobs that are asking them to work at midnight are griping about unfair conditions.

To those who don't want to work on the holiday, I think you are completely right and you shouldn't work. My suggestion is that you go to your employer, hand him your badge/ID, and let somebody who desperately wants to work have your job. I'll bet there are a good 10-15 million people who would happily take your job right now, and for the rest of time as well. Given that you probably did not graduate high school, let alone college, be thankful you are employed at all and go do the job you were hired to do. If you don't want to work at midnight on Thanksgiving, don't work in retail!

Am I being harsh? You bet! If you don't like your situation, change it. If you don't want to work crappy hours, do something to better your position in life. If you can't do so, then spend the time at work thinking about all of the mistakes you made in the past. The world isn't out to get you and the only person stopping you from making a change is you! Or, continue to sit there and make excuses about why you can't and just live the rest of your life bitter and sitting in a tent in some park in some city until they pepper spray you out.

We all would like to be the billionaire at the top of the mountain, but guess what...only 1% of the world will get there...that's why they ARE the 1% Sure, some of the fell into it and probably are dumber than you; most of the ones at the top got there because they worked harder and smarter, and were determined to do great things.

On a positive note for those of you unhappy with "the rich," the stock market is continuing to fall, so the rich are quickly coming back in line with your financial situation. After a 5% drubbing this week, the market looks even more vulnerable to a good crash. Just imagine if the market fell 50%...a whole group of rich folk would find themselves with the same net worth as some of your camping friends.

Earlier this week, technical mastermind Carter said 1165 was a floor and we should bounce...oops. I actually do think we're oversold to the point that we should see some small relief move, but it's possible that it won't happen because everybody is looking for it to happen. The high probability trade hasn't worked very well this year so there's no reason to suspect it will now. Besides, when the overall trend is lower, why try to catch the few percentage points against the grain?!

There is so much chaos and confusion in the world right now, we are on very fragile ground. If Spain or Italy really blows up in a meaningful way, we could see 20% lost in a single day...or whatever the current limit is before the market shuts down. With all of the electronic trading and automatic executions, things can unravel fast, as we've seen a few times in the last couple of years.

I'm not ready to say we're absolutely going 30%-50% lower (i.e. a retest of the 2009 low), but it sure feels like that's where this is going...and just imagine if we went below that! The current strength of corporate balance sheets will only get us so far if countries and banks implode, and between Europe and the US, everybody needs to slow their roll in the spending category. This ultimately should lead to slow/negative growth, which either means companies shrink profits and/or lay people off...it will be a vicious downward spiral if/when it happens.

In terms of positioning, I retain my 0% equity exposure position and am semi-scared of bonds as well...a .25% return through a bank account looks pretty good right now, all things considered.

For traders, short is the direction to go, but it might be worth waiting for a better set-up, just in case that small bounce happens soon. Of course, you can layer into a position as well, but as we've seen, these spikes up have been very brutal and sharp, so they require a lot of patience and capital if you get caught.

Once again, I hope you had a great Thanksgiving loaded with turkey and gravy...and now get out there and bring home the bacon!