Social Data Provides Real-Time Brexit Sentiment

Brexit polls in Britain close in less than five hours, and the latest data from TickerTags could be the best measure of which direction the vote is leaning.

TickerTags monitors social media sites to identify trends by searching for words and phrases that appear together in social media content, such as tweets.

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The official results of the referendum vote may not happen until around 2 a.m. Eastern time in the U.S., but voters are free to speak their minds on social media throughout the day.

#iVoted is the number one trend on UK twitter today. While polls in recent weeks have suggested that the “leave” vote had been gaining some momentum, social media data suggests what global markets seem to be expecting: there will be no Brexit.

Today’s organic Twitter mentions including the words “voted,” “iVoted,” “leave,” “remain,” and “stay” suggest that the “remain” camp is leading 58 percent to 42 percent.

The positive Thursday momentum of both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY (+0.9 percent) and the iShares rust EWU (+2.0 percent) suggest that traders are also confident that Britain will vote to remain in the EU.

The Bloomberg Brexit Tracker suggests the chance of a Brexit has now fallen to only 25 percent.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.