US-Iran War A 'Nuclear-Grade Bull Catalyst' For Bitcoin, Says Analyst, Even As Odds That Strait Of Hormuz Will Be Blocked Dips

Cryptocurrency analyst and author Adam Livingston argued Sunday that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could serve as a “nuclear-grade bull catalyst” for Bitcoin BTC/USD.

What happened: In a series of posts, Livingston noted the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites and Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most strategically important oil shipping choke point.

He highlighted an earlier forecast by JPMorgan analysts that a Strait of Hormuz closure would likely trigger a sustained oil price shock, sending prices to $120–$130 per barrel.

Livingston argued that war-induced economic instability would be beneficial for Bitcoin, noting that past Middle Eastern conflicts led to significant monetary expansion.

He stated that billions would be spent on funding the war machine and replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the U.S. emergency stockpile of crude oil, leading to more dollar printing.

"Geopolitics just handed Bitcoin the perfect two-stroke engine: energy chaos on the inhale, fiat debasement on the exhale," Livingston said.

Arthur Hayes, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, made similar arguments, anticipating Bitcoin’s value to rise due to increased money printing and government spending in the days ahead.

Why It Matters: Interestingly, despite these bold predictions, the odds that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz before July tumbled on Polymarket after a sharp spike on Sunday.

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As of this writing, cryptocurrency bettors have priced in only a 23% likelihood of this happening, down from a high of 52% seen 24 hours ago.

Notably, independent researcher Anatoly Karlin said that closing the Strait of Hormuz would predominantly impact China, Iran's main oil export customer and close ally.

In contrast, the U.S., which purchases less than 3 percent of the Persian Gulf's oil, would be less affected due to its increased domestic oil production from fracking technologies.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $101,858.13, down 0.73% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.26% to $73.65 a barrel, erasing some gains from the Sunday evening spike.

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