Consumer Confidence Tuesday and the SP500

Consumer confidence (

) will be out at 9 am CT. The stock market likes to set lows on CC Tuesdays and start a new rally. Last month, the SP500 dropped 15 points into CC Tuesday (see rectangle), and rallied the rest of week. Because a larger degree correction should be underway due to social unrest, whatever low is set today will become an important benchmark for investor confidence vs consumer confidence. Key off 1328.50 today. The SP500 is aggressively bearish below 1328.50. But a print of 1329.00 would put the short term aggressive bear on hold for a moment. How high is high if the SP500 breaches 1329, and where would I expect another sell signal to show up? Look to last week's trade for starters. The low for the week was set on Tuesday. Today's Tuesday low is 2 points below last Tuesday's low. Last Tuesday rallied into Wednesday, and then launched on Thursday's Philly Fed. If the SP500 manages not to stumble badly today, a similar trade to last Tues-Wed may unfold. Under such a scenario, the best the SP500 will likely do is about 1334 if 1320 holds. There will be no Philly to prop up the mkt on Thursday. And if the SP500 takes out the consumer confidence low in the second half of this week, it will confirm that investor confidence is swooning far below consumer confidence. This will be a bearish confirmation signal. The expected correction that would unfold is expected to be 7%-10%.