JP Morgan initiated coverage of Cidara Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:CDTX) on Friday, citing its lead asset, CD388, for influenza, underscoring the game-changing potential of the product and multi-billion dollar potential in the U.S. alone.
Analyst Anupam Rama says across doses, prevention efficacy was ahead of known vaccine benchmarks across various populations, with the highest dose (450mg) showing a prevention efficacy of around 76% with no major safety concerns.
In June, the company released topline results from its Phase 2b NAVIGATE trial for preventing seasonal influenza in healthy unvaccinated adults aged 18 to 64.
The study met its primary endpoint, demonstrating a statistically significant prevention efficacy for each of three dose groups in individuals who received a single dose of CD388 at the beginning of the flu season and were evaluated for laboratory and clinically confirmed influenza over 24 weeks.
The study also met all secondary endpoints, including efficacy at 37.8 and 37.2 degrees Celsius temperature thresholds and maintenance of PE for up to 28 weeks with statistical significance.
JP Morgan initiated with an Overweight rating and a price target of $200.
The analyst says the addressable population being assessed in the ongoing phase 3 ANCHOR study is wider than many had anticipated.
An interim analysis from the phase 3 ANCHOR study assessing CD388 in individuals over the age of 65 and individuals with high-risk co-morbidities / immunocompromised status in the Northern
Hemisphere flu season is anticipated in the first half of 2026.
The large addressable population and strong Phase 2b NAVIGATE results position JP Morgan at the high end of Street expectations, projecting a 75% probability of success for CD388 and peak U.S. sales of over $4 billion.
Of note, analyst Rams sees addressable population, penetration speed / peak rate, and price all as potential upside levers.
“Finally, with de-risking data from known clinical trials and the potential breadth of the addressable market, we do see CD388 as strategically attractive,” JP Morgan analyst wrote in an investor note on Friday.
On Friday, Cidara Therapeutics announced it will have a late-breaking presentation at the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza.
Price Action: CDTX stock is up 2.85% at $113.92 at the last check on Friday.
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