Eli Lilly's Orforglipron Data Is Not Disastrous: Analyst

Eli Lilly and Co LLY released underwhelming data from a Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial evaluating orforglipron, an investigational oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist.

For the primary endpoint, orforglipron 36 mg lowered weight by an average of 12.4% (27.3 lbs) compared to 0.9% (2.2 lbs) with placebo using the efficacy estimand, below Wall Street’s expectations of around 15%.

Eli Lilly also released better-than-expected second-quarter earnings on Thursday and raised 2025 guidance.

Bank of America (BofA) Securities said on Friday that the second quarter was strong. Mounjaro and Zepbound were meaningfully ahead of consensus.

Also Read: Eli Lilly’s Rare Weight Loss Data Miss Could Benefit Competitors

However, analyst Tim Anderson said the orforglipron phase 3 data did not fall ‘that short’.

He says if a patient weighs 300 pounds, this new data says they’ll lose 33 pounds (11%), not the ~40lbs (13-14%) investors wanted. But 33 pounds is still quite meaningful for a GLP1 in a pill.

The analyst said the results were not disastrous, but the stock reaction was overdone.

With a Buy rating, BofA lowered the price forecast for Eli Lilly from $1,000 to $900. The primary reason for investing in Eli Lilly is its strong and sustained growth compared to other pharmaceutical companies.

Over the past five years, its earnings per share have grown about four times faster than the industry average. While the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio about 2.5 times higher than its peers, it still has the potential to keep beating expectations and raising guidance.

Price Action: LLY stock is down 0.86% at $635.35 at the last check on Friday.

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