Coinbase Analysts Look Ahead To Q2 After Disappointing Q1: 'Higher Crypto Prices… Increased Volumes'

Coinbase Global COIN analysts highlight the company’s recent acquisition and how the future could be brighter with cryptocurrency prices jumping in the current second quarter after the company missed first-quarter estimates.

The Coinbase Analysts:

Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro maintained a Neutral rating on Coinbase and raised the price target from $189 to $209.
Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi maintained a Buy rating with a $400 price target.

Goldman Sachs on COIN: A rising crypto market cap could offset the first-quarter earnings miss by Coinbase, Yaro said in a new investor note.

"We expect a somewhat muted market response to results, although broader crypto market cap appreciation in recent days could provide an offset, as it could support trading volume growth going forward, as we have seen historically," Yaro said.

The analyst highlighted Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit, which was also announced Thursday as the largest crypto acquisition in history.

"The company continues to expand its business offering."

Yaro said Coinbase's second quarter is likely to see strong transaction revenue based on the April figure of $240 million and the increased cryptocurrency prices currently with Bitcoin BTC/USD back over $100,000.

The analyst predicts second quarter transaction revenue of $802 million based on the likelihood of May and June being stronger than the $240 million April figure.

"Higher crypto prices have historically correlated with increased volumes."

Canaccord on COIN: In a new investor note, Vafi highlighted Coinbase's market share gains and M&A activity, as the cryptocurrency sector’s first quarter was down.

The analyst said Coinbase's "medium-term setup looking better."

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"While Q1 saw some ‘hangover effect' in crypto spot prices after a Q4 buoyed by US presidential results, COIN nevertheless continues to strengthen its market position," Vafi said.

Coinbase saw a 10% volume pullback compared to crypto volumes being down around 13% globally in the first quarter.

"We believe this trend will continue for a while, as COIN remains a gold standard entry point into digital assets for both institutional and retail investors."

Vafi called Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit "a landmark M&A deal in the sector."

The analyst highlighted $30 billion in open interest on the Deribit platform and noted that Coinbase expects the acquisition to be accretive to adjusted earnings.

"While much of the Deribit service offering in crypto options is not yet approvable for the U.S. markets, we like the forward thinking on this deal now instead of waiting. Combining the platforms and go to market ex U.S. now provides plenty of synergies for those customers with some inevitably medium term for the U.S. market."

Vafi also said "Coinbase as a service" could become an increase new growth driver for the cryptocurrency industry.

While there is a risk of more players entering the crypto market with an increased regulatory framework, Vafi sees Coinbase as a leader in providing custody and other services.

Price Action: Coinbase stock is down 0.5% to $205.41 on Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $142.58 to $349.75. Coinbase stock is down 17.3% year-to-date and down 2.4% over the last year.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades at $103,127.30 and is up 10.3% year-to-date in 2025 and up over 60% in the last year.

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