Analyst On Denbury's Acquisition: No Rival Bidders In Sight And Low Chances Of Deal Break, But Risks Rema

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Tim Rezvan downgraded Denbury Inc (NYSE:DEN) to Sector Weight from Overweight and removed the price target of $102.

The analyst notes DEN's shares losses since the announcement of its acquisition by Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) for $4.9 billion due to a positive move in XOM shares and a tight deal spread.

Rezvan does not expect to see another bidder emerge for DEN.

The analyst sees the likelihood of the deal-breaking as extremely low.

However, if it does, Rezvan believes DEN's share price could decline by 10% or more, given part of the rationale for being bought was difficulty contesting for the brownfield emitter deals with investment-grade competitors.

The analyst estimates EPS of $4.96 for FY23 and $5.05 for FY24.

Also, Rezvan expects EBITDA of $556.0 million (vs. consensus $575.4 million) for FY23 and $570.0 million (vs. $643.4 million estimate) for FY24.

Earlier this month, DEN reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.06, missing the $1.23 estimate, and sales of $328.98 million, missing the consensus of $349.47 million.

Price Action: DEN shares are trading higher by 3.54% at $90.60 on the last check Thursday.

XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corp

$147.711.21%

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Analyst On Denbury's Acquisition: No Rival Bidders In Sight And Low Chances Of Deal Break, But Risks Remain