Potential For Accelerated Growth In Penumbra Despite Product Launch Delays: Analysts' Positive Outlook Post Q2 Results

Truist Securities analyst Richard Newitter reiterated a Buy rating on Penumbra, Inc. PEN, lowering the price target to $345 from $370.

The company recently reported Q2 results, where earnings beat estimates. It raised its guidance for 2023 total revenue to $1.05 billion-$1.07 billion, representing 24%-26% growth Y/Y.

PEN shares will likely see pressure mainly due to a delay in Thunderbolt approval/launch (now expected late '24/'25), the analyst notes.

The delay is driven by slower-than-expected enrollment of the first ~100 patients and an FDA request to modify the safety endpoint of the trial. 

Management described enrollment as having accelerated after the initial slow start, the analyst notes. 

However, the analyst sees margin expansion for PEN in 2H, and the company anticipates a +ve operating margin each quarter, exiting the year with an operating margin exceeding 10%.

The analyst increased the FY23 revenue forecast to $1.062 billion (previously $1.050 billion) and adjusted EPS est. to $1.73 (previously $1.58). 

In FY24, the analyst raised revenue estimate to $1.269 billion (previously $1.253 billion) and raised adj. EPS est. to $3.02 (previously $2.92). 

Needham analyst Mike Matson reiterated a Hold rating on PEN after Q2 results.

Matson believes that Penumbra can sustain at least 15-20% revenue growth with the potential for an acceleration to over 25% with the expansion of its intelligent aspiration offerings.

Going ahead, the analyst expects Penumbra to drive its gross and operating margins higher and deliver EPS growth above its revenue growth.

Matson raised FY23 EPS estimates to $1.62 from $1.54. For FY24, the analyst raised EPS estimates to $2.31 from $2.27.

Price Action: PEN shares are trading lower by 9.5% to $269.73 on the last check Wednesday.