Cheniere has underperformed over the past three months (+1.4% vs. AMEI: +5.1%), attributable to international gas arb compression and revised expectations for near-term marketing torque.
The analyst believes LNG's underperformance is tough to reconcile since he estimates a ~$2/mmbtu decline in Cheniere Marketing International or CMI marketing margins.
Based on the above, the analyst lowered FY24 adj EBITDA estimates by $927 million to $6.5 billion.
Adj EBITDA estimates for FY25 have been reduced by $408 million to $6.3 billion.
The analyst forecasts $600 million of additional gross debt paydown in 2Q23-4Q23 ahead of LNG's '24 maturity and ~$1.5 billion/yr of gross debt paydown in '24, early of LNG's '25 maturities.
Price Action: LNG shares are trading down by 0.89% to $148.81 on the last check Thursday.
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