Lockheed Martin's 'Space Growth' Sets Foundation For 2023 Upside, Credit Suisse Says

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  • Credit Suisse analyst reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares of Lockheed Martin Corp LMT and raised the price target from $510 to $550.
  • The company reported Q1 results above Street view across all major line items, including sales, EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow.
  • The analyst said the company is arguably hitting its stride, with sales beating Street in the last two quarters following consistent misses from 1Q-3Q of 2022.
  • The analyst thinks LMT may be positioned to return to growth in 2023 and more meaningfully accelerate growth in 2024.
  • The analyst vouches that Space Systems comprises the bulk of the upside case for LMT sales in ‘23, with optionality at MFC, given demand trends / bookings.
  • The analyst noted that portions of LMT’s business use performance-based billings rather than traditional progress payments.
  • The analyst expects sales to ramp linearly through the year at Aeronautics/MFC, with RMS more 2H weighted.
  • The analyst sees 2Q free cash flow below 1Q given cash tax headwinds and share repurchases to ramp in 2H.
  • The analyst lists execution on fixed price contracts, sector rotation, and lower DoD budget growth as potential risks.
  • Price Action: LMT shares are trading lower by 0.74% at $497.70 on the last check Wednesday.
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