These Analysts See More Upside In Apple - iPhone's Demand Resilience, China Recovery Are Catalysts

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  • Credit Suisse analyst Shannon Cross maintains Apple Inc AAPL with an Outperform rating, raising the price target from $184 to $188.
  • The re-rating reflects the analyst's increased FY24 EPS estimate of $6.78 (versus $6.66 prior) net of cash. Apple will report 2Q results on May 4. 
  • Cross writes that iPhone demand was resilient during the quarter, raising her revenue estimate to $93.27 billion from $92.19 billion (above the consensus of $92.51 billion) and her EPS estimate to $1.45 from $1.43 (slightly above the consensus of $1.43). 
  • Cross's revenue estimate reflects her belief that demand is improving in China. Apple reported an increase in foot traffic in the region during January but linked the improvement to the timing of the Lunar New Year. 
  • However, Cross said the trend was stable throughout the quarter. 
  • The analyst expects Apple to update its capital return program with a ~5% dividend hike and ~$90 billion additional share repurchase authorization. 
  • The company will continue to buy back over dividends as it works towards net cash neutrality. Once the company reaches net cash neutrality, Cross assumes incremental leverage will be dependent on the percentage of recurring revenue. 
  • Apple's exposure to macro concerns is more within Mac and Wearables, with iPhone becoming an essential device. Therefore, she anticipates Apple guiding 3Q revenue up Y/Y (Cross estimates at +5% versus consensus of +3%) and a gross margin around 44% (Cross's EPS estimate of $1.29 is $0.06 above consensus).
  • The gross margin should benefit from declining logistics costs, reduced currency impact, and improving revenue mix to Services.
  • Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley maintains Apple with a Buy and raises the price target from $170 to $180.
  • The re-rating reflects the iPhone's continued dominance in North America with steady sales and a potent mix of higher-end models.
  • Price Action: AAPL shares traded higher by 2.95% at $164.83 on the last check Thursday.
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