BigCommerce's Strong Black Friday And Thanksgiving Sales Data Impresses Analysts

  • Needham analyst Scott Berg reiterated a Buy on BigCommerce Holdings, Inc BIGC with a $20 price target.
  • BigCommerce announced stronger-than-expected Black Friday and Thanksgiving sales than expected, with GMV up 31% Y/Y
  • While this data point was released in a bit of a vacuum since the company did not offer it last year, he noted that the company did announce that 2021 Cyber Week GMV grew only 15% Y/Y. 
  • However, BIGC's GMV growth was much more substantial than the 1.4% reported by Adobe Inc ADBE Adobe Analytics and the 17% reported by Shopify Inc SHOP, which he believes is a strong indication of two items.
  • 4Q22 PSR outperformance can be better than the 7% reported in 4Q21. The growth likely indicates that the company's upmarket Enterprise focus is selling well since these customers have higher overall volumes with more predictable sales, Berg wrote.
  • Raymond James analyst Brian Peterson had a Market Perform rating.
  • The 31% growth in Black Friday GMV (and the 23% growth on Thanksgiving) is well more than the consensus PSR revenue, calling for just 10% growth Y/Y. 
  • Peterson knew that PSR revenue drivers are not a one-to-one correlation for GMV, although early data suggest that trends are coming in above his initial expectations. 
  • Peterson was also encouraged to hear that merchants began to see holiday purchase spikes in October, although it's unclear to what extent current trends will continue into December. 
  • Either way, the news offers a positive development for shares that are down 78% YTD, with a potential for a 4Q22 beat offering a near-term positive catalyst for a stock that trades at just 2x his CY23 revenue estimate.
  • Price Action: BIGC shares traded higher by 6.72% at $8.42 on the last check Tuesday.
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