Back in 2021, reports surfaced that famed investor Carl Icahn held a roughly $400-million stake — around 1.2% — in Illinois-based insurer Allstate Corp (NYSE:ALL).

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported in May 2021 the billionaire activist purchased the shares when they were trading around the $90 mark in 2020.

These may not represent all of the shares Ichan holds, according to an analyst.

What happened: Research advisory firm Gordon Haskett in a note to investors Friday speculated that Icahn owns a shadow portfolio that he keeps separate from his 13-F filings and files confidentially with the SEC, and may have an activist stake in the company.

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Here’s why they think that — but first, let’s talk about share prices.

Shares of Allstate slid 13% on Thursday as the company announced estimated results for third-quarter 2022 of a net loss between $675 million and $725 million.

Shares of Allstate are back to their pre-pandemic levels and are trading at $121 alongside rival Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR). Ichan reportedly chose Allstate as an investment since he thought the company was undervalued in comparison.

Why It Matters: If Icahn were to announce an activist stake in the company, it wouldn’t be his first run as an activist investor in the insurance sector.

Before agreeing to a board position, his company, Icahn Enterprises L.P., disclosed an investment in American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) in the fall of 2015 and called for the removal of the CEO.

More than that, Icahn has close ties to Allstate.

Brett Icahn, Carl’s son, worked alongside Judith Sprieser (director at Allstate) at

Newell Brands Inc (NASDAQ:NWL) since both were added to the board in 2018.

Additionally, “Icahn’s team has negotiated a deal with Lead Director Gregg Sherrill, who was the chairman of Tenneco at the time that it bought Icahn’s Federal Mogul business in 2018,” Don Bilson, head of Gordon Haskett’s research division, wrote.

“Far be it for us to know whether Icahn is still watching — [but] it may be time for this story to resurface.”
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