SVB Sees De-Risked Opportunity For This Newly Listed Norovirus Vaccine

  • SVB Leerink is initiating coverage of HilleVax Inc HLVX shares with an Outperform rating and a $30 price target. 
  • The analyst believes the company’s potentially first-in-class infant norovirus vaccine HIL214 represents a uniquely de-risked opportunity. 
  • It estimates $625 million in risk-adjusted infant HIL214 sales in 2030E ($1 billion unadjusted). 
  • The outlook is supported by the pediatric rotavirus vaccine analog (2021 global sales of Rotateq and Rotarix combined were $1.6 billion). 
  • The company also plans to study HIL214 in older adults, which could represent a second blockbuster indication. 
  • SVB also noted that HLVX shares had traded down -41% post IPO vs. -5% for the XBI, likely due to market dislocation. 
  • It believes this provides an attractive entry point for investors as HLVX’s $380 million market cap appears heavily discounted vs. its $1.2 billion discounted cash flow-based valuation. 
  • SVB expects infant Phase 2b safety data in 2H22, immunogenicity data in 1H23, and top-line efficacy data in 2H23.
  • Concurrently, Guggenheim initiated coverage on HilleVax with a Buy rating and a price target of $40. JP Morgan initiated coverage on HilleVax with an Overweight rating and a price target of $24.
  • Price Action: HLVX shares are up 8.68% at $10.33 during the market session on the last check Tuesday.






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