Market Overview

Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Primed For $3.5B In 2021 Sales: Analyst

Share:
Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Primed For $3.5B In 2021 Sales: Analyst

The mRNA coronavirus vaccine in development by Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE – ADR (NASDAQ: BNTX) is poised for an emergency use authorization application, according to SVB Leerink. 

The Pfizer Analyst: Geoffrey Porges has a Market Perform rating on Pfizer shares.

The Pfizer Thesis: Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine candidate BNT162b2 will likely report interim efficacy results within the next few weeks and then advance to an emergency use filing, Porges said in a note.

BNT162b2 has a high likelihood of achieving its efficacy and safety outcomes and advancing to at least initial emergency approval in November, the analyst said.

"We believe there is a high probability of BNT162b2 being granted an EUA for high risk populations in the fourth quarter." 

Related Link: The Week Ahead In Biotech: Spectrum Pharma FDA Decision, Biogen And Abbott Earnings, Cancer Conference

SVB Leerink's vaccine market model assumes permanent risk from SARS-CoV-2, necessitating re-vaccination every two years to maintain protective immunity, Porges said. 

Relatively high vaccine penetration to the tune of 80% is likely in health care workers and high-risk adults such as the elderly and those with comorbidities, and low penetration is foreseen for low-risk adults and ultimately children, the analyst said.

"We also forecast an initial large bolus of vaccination in 2021-2022E given the size of the COVID naïve population, followed by a stable re-vaccination trend into 2030Es," he said. 

Porges expects two initial doses for priming immunization, and then a single booster every two years.

Given Pfizer's lead position in clinical development, strong immunogenicity data and seemingly clean safety profile, BNT162b2 is expected to take more than 50% of the market share initially, which would decrease over time to 25% as more products enter the market place, the analyst said.

Pfizer's vaccine is expected to be priced at $30 per dose in the U.S. and $23 in regions outside of the U.S. initially, with the price falling to $11-$15 per dose over time, he said. 

Incorporating BNT162b2 in SVB Leerink's Pfizer model with an 80% probability of success, Porges said he expects it to generate $3.54 billion in sales in 2021 and $1.57 billion in 2024.

PFE Price Action: Pfizer shares were down 0.56% at $37.28 at last check Wednesday. 

Related Link: FDA's COVID-19 Vaccine Guidance Shows 'Substantial' Obligations For Developers: Analyst

Latest Ratings for PFE

DateFirmActionFromTo
Nov 2020Goldman SachsReinstatesNeutral
Nov 2020BernsteinInitiates Coverage OnMarket Perform
Oct 2020SVB LeerinkMaintainsMarket Perform

View More Analyst Ratings for PFE
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

 

Related Articles (PFE)

View Comments and Join the Discussion!

Posted-In: Coronavirus Covid-19Analyst Color Biotech Health Care Reiteration Analyst Ratings General Best of Benzinga

Latest Ratings

StockFirmActionPT
SCPLKeyBancInitiates Coverage On18.0
TEAMKeyBancMaintains240.0
HYMCBMO CapitalInitiates Coverage On
DEMorgan StanleyMaintains335.0
SBNYRaymond JamesMaintains138.0
View the Latest Analytics Ratings
Don't Miss Any Updates!
News Directly in Your Inbox
Subscribe to:
Benzinga Premarket Activity
Get pre-market outlook, mid-day update and after-market roundup emails in your inbox.
Market in 5 Minutes
Everything you need to know about the market - quick & easy.
Fintech Focus
A daily collection of all things fintech, interesting developments and market updates.
Thank You

Thank you for subscribing! If you have any questions feel free to call us at 1-877-440-ZING or email us at vipaccounts@benzinga.com