KeyBanc initiated coverage of 14 popular tech stocks on Tuesday and is bullish on the long-term opportunities created by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Online Services: Patterson said ANGI Homeservices has been improving its execution and is benefitting from an acceleration in digital home services.
“We believe the next leg of price appreciation is driven by improved supply capacity, increased customer loyalty, and margin expansion,” Justin Patterson wrote in a note.
Patterson said Frontdoor is making progress with its on-demand opportunity and cost-cutting initiatives.
“However, until the Company can achieve >10% y/y revenue growth, we believe it will be difficult for shares to re-rate,” he wrote.
Finally, Patterson said Yelp has improved its product and its user monetization, but it also faces unique challenges.
“Enthusiasm toward this progress is offset by multiple unknowns around COVID-19’s impact in core Yelp markets (e.g., SF Bay Area, NYC, etc.), consumer behavior changes, and the competitive landscape,” Patterson wrote.
Dating Apps: When it comes to IAC, Patterson said investors aren’t fully appreciating Dotdash’s share gains, and ANGI and Vimeo growth trends could lead to spin-offs sooner than expected.
“On a sum-of-the-parts basis, valuation appears compelling,” he wrote.
Patterson said Match Group’s business has been resilient in 2020, even though the dating scene has been extremely challenged due to social distancing.
“International and Tinder monetization create a path for sustainable growth and best-in-class margins, warranting a premium multiple (30x 2022E EV/EBITDA),” Patterson wrote.
Video And Music: Netflix is the prime winner in over-the-top video, and its pricing power creates significant long-term growth potential, Patterson said.
“Results during COVID-19 suggest the potential UCAN TAM is even larger than expected, and that increases our conviction in both pricing power and the International opportunity,” Patterson wrote
Given Roku’s massive user base, Patterson said the company has significant long-term monetization opportunities.
“We expect growth in ad-supported channels, and new ad units should drive faster revenue growth than consensus contemplates,” he wrote.
Patterson said Spotify is a clear leader in the streaming audio space, but it is lacking a near-term catalyst.
“As such, we would prefer to wait for a more compelling entry point,” he wrote.
Online Advertisers: Facebook should sustain at least 20% annual revenue growth as it launches new initiatives like Shopping, Patteson said.
“Coupled with an advertising market recovery and digital acceleration, we believe Facebook is well positioned for positive revisions,” he wrote.
Patterson said Alphabet’s cloud success is becoming clear, and its advertising business should support double-digit revenue growth.
“When viewed on a sum-of-the-parts basis, valuation for Alphabet's assets remains compelling,” he wrote.
Patterson said The Trade Desk is gaining market share and has opportunities in audio and video.
“We believe this will sustain 30%+ revenue growth and 30%+ EBITDA margin,” he wrote.
Other Social Media Stocks: Patterson is forecasting greater than 30% annual AdTech revenue growth for Pinterest.
“Coupled with long-term margin expansion, we believe a 10x 2022E EV/S multiple is appropriate (vs. 7.5x today),” he wrote.
Patterson said Snap has vastly improved its product and its advertising business, creating opportunity to grow average revenue per user in the long-term: “As revenue scales, margins can materially expand."
Patterson said new advertising products and user growth are bullish for Twitter, but much of its recent success has already been priced into the stock.
“We advise waiting for a more attractive entry point,” he wrote.
Patterson initiated coverage of the following stocks:
- ANGI Homeservices Inc ANGI, Overweight rating, $15 price target.
- Facebook, Inc. FB, Overweight rating, $330 target.
- Frontdoor Inc FTDR, Sector Weight rating.
- Alphabet, Inc. GOOG GOOGL, Overweight rating, $1,955 target.
- IAC/Interactivecorp IAC, Overweight rating, $160 target.
- Match Group Inc MTCH, Overweight rating, $138 target.
- Netflix Inc NFLX, Overweight rating, $590 target.
- Pinterest Inc PINS, Overweight rating, $44 target.
- Roku Inc ROKU, Overweight rating, $228 target.
- Snap Inc SNAP, Overweight rating, $29 target.
- Spotify Technology SA SPOT, Sector Weight rating.
- Trade Desk Inc TTD, Overweight rating, $580 target.
- Twitter Inc TWTR, Sector Weight rating.
- Yelp Inc YELP, Sector Weight rating.
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