UBS Americas CIO Lays Out The S&P 500's Best-Case Scenario

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Under a best-case scenario, current social distancing measures and other restrictions to spread the coronavirus is successful to a certain extent and this could help the S&P 500 index rise from Friday's close of 2,304.92 to 3,200, according to UBS CIO Mike Ryan.

What Happened

The U.S. has a path to show a recovery similar to what was seen in China and South Korea in terms of the effectiveness of containment measures, Ryan said Friday afternoon on CNBC's "Fast Money."

At that point, some of the social distancing measures can be rolled back and the economy can start moving ahead and begin a recovery process.

Why It's Important

Any ultimate success requires the support of the U.S. federal government in the form of a "pretty massive" stimulus package that isn't targeted towards one specific industry or region, he said. Stocks can recover and move higher over the next six to 12 months as earnings begin to stabilize.

Some of the economic readouts from China are encouraging, including a rise in coal consumption and an uptick in auto sales, Ryan said. Any global economic recovery would need to play out in Europe and the U.S. -- both of which are lagging China's progress by a few weeks.

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