Market Overview

Black Friday 2019 Winners And Losers: Amazon, Macy's, Shopify And More

Black Friday 2019 Winners And Losers: Amazon, Macy's, Shopify And More

Online retailers were winners on a good news-bad news Black Friday that saw overall sales up nearly 20% over last year, but sales that came in under some expectations due to a drop-off in traditional brick and mortar shopping.

U.S. shoppers spent more than $7 billion on Friday, thanks largely to online shoppers, who, according to Adobe, spent $168 per online order on average.

The online giants, including Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP), were among the winners, though a number of traditional retailers who are getting in on the e-commerce move also did well.

The Numbers For Black Friday 2019

In-person shopper visits were down 6%.

While Black Friday sales surged online, things were kind of quiet in the stores. Retail tracker ShopperTrak said shopper traffic was down 6% on Black Friday, the weakest result since 2014.

In addition to more people shopping online, another reason Friday traffic was down appears to have been that more stores were open this year on Thanksgiving Day, siphoning off holiday buyers who couldn't wait for the traditional start to the season. Sales on Thanksgiving increased 3%.

Black Friday e-commerce sales were up 20% year-over-year, but missed expectations.

Online shoppers spent $7.4 billion on Friday. But the 20% growth was less than last year's 24% increase, and spending came in just short of the $7.5 billion that retail analysts had projected. The entire spend was up 17% year-over-year.

"The average 17% y/y growth would be in-line to slightly below expectations given a later holiday," wrote Bank of America analyst Justin Post.

There was also a big shift to mobile, as Shopify reported that 69% of orders were made from mobile devices.

See Also: Black Friday Sales 'On Track' With Expectations, Says Telsey Advisory CEO

The Winners

In addition to Amazon and Shopify, some other retailers did well.

Victoria's Secret parent L Brands Inc. (NYSE: LB) was a winner, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger.

"LB emerged the weekend winner given a BOGO free full-price offer at Victoria’s Secret ... and PINK," Greenberger said in a note.

Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) also saw higher year-over-year traffic, according to Greenberger.

That's reinforced, Greenberger said, by strong starts to the holidays for Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) and Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY).

Baird Research cited data from Edison Trends showing online growth was strongest - up 60% - for Nordstrom, Inc (NYSE: JWN), just ahead of Walmart and Amazon.

The Losers

Brick and mortar stores not growing their online presence were the overall losers.

Specifically, Greenberger took note of year-over-year traffic declines at Gap Inc.'s (NYSE: GPS) Old Navy, and Kohl's Corporation (NYSE: KSS), even with new merchandise introductions.

While data was positive for Amazon and Shopify, eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) "was a potential laggard," Baird Research said. J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE: JCP) also saw weak online sales

Latest Ratings for AMZN

Jan 2021Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight
Nov 2020China RenaissanceUpgradesHoldBuy
Nov 2020CitigroupMaintainsBuy

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