Wedbush Previews Harley's Q2: Deterioration Trends May Have Occurred

Harley-Davidson Inc HOG is scheduled to report second quarter results on July 23 and could show meaningful retail declines, according to Wedbush.

The Analyst

Wedbush's James Hardiman maintains a Neutral rating on Harley-Davidson with a $35 price target.

The Thesis

First hand-checks with multiple U.S. Harley-Davidson dealers point to a 5%-6% decline in retail unit registrations throughout the second quarter, Hardiman wrote in a note. If accurate, the company could show in its earnings report a deceleration in trends from the 4% decline seen in the first quarter and a "collapse" compared to a mid-single digit growth seen in March.

Harley was likely negatively impacted by record rainfall throughout the quarter and an "unusually-aggressive" promotional activity that stared in March but has since slowed down.

Despite what could prove to be a difficult quarter, Hardiman said Harley is likely on track to hit its guidance and "modestly improve" inventory turns throughout the full year 2019. Specifically, the launch of the electric motorcycle called the Livewire could result in an incremental half a point of growth over the next one year period.

Price Action

Shares of Harley-Davidson were trading higher by 1.5% at $36.64 Friday afternoon.

Related Links:

Meet LiveWire, Harley-Davidson's New All-Electric Motorcycle

Harley-Davidson Inks New Partnership In China