Analysts React To Adobe's $2B Fourth Quarter


Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE reported fiscal fourth quarter results Thursday, with quarterly revenue that exceeded $2 billion for the first time. 

Bank Of America: Upside Abounds

Bank of America's Kash Rangan maintains a Buy on Adobe's stock with an unchanged $220 price target.

As expected, Adobe posted a revenue-an-EPS beat and also guided its fiscal first quarter revenue and EPS slightly above the Street's expectations, Rangan said in a note.

For the stock's momentum to continue, Adobe needs to show increased confidence around its digital media net new ARR, or average recurring revenue, according to BofA. The company didn't disappoint, as the metric was revised higher by $100 million to $1.1 billion — and doesn't include price increases that begin in March. 

The company's earnings report also signals positive momentum in new product adoption such as xD, Stock and Sign, while new user adoption continues to drive upside for Creative Cloud, Rangan said. Other upside opportunities include, according to BofA: international growth, especially in Japan and Europe; upsell opportunities with enterprise customers; and upselling to mobile customers.

Barclays: Results Speak For Themselves

Barclays' Saket Kalia maintains an Overweight on Adobe's stock with a price target raised from $181 to $193.

Adobe's strong earnings report contained three interesting "tidbits," Kalia said in a note:

The $100 million revenue guidance increase to digital media ARR could prove to be conservative.

The tone of business in Experience Cloud "sounded better."

Tax reform could prove to be a notable positive for Adobe, as more than 80 percent of its cash is located offshore.

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Morgan Stanley: 'Sustained Strong Execution'

Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss maintains an Equal-weight on Adobe's stock with an unchanged $186 price target.

Aside from a "hiccup" in the third quarter in the Experience Cloud business, Adobe has shown "sustained strong execution" over the past few years, Weiss said in a note. Adobe is "back on track" to aggressively compete in the $83 billion total addressable market, the analyst said. 

Adobe's total expense growth rose from 14 percent in fiscal 2016 to 17 percent in fiscal 2017, and this pace of growth is likely to continue, the analyst said. While the company's revenue growth is expected to grow at around 20 percent in fiscal 2018, the model will still deleverage and also grow EPS by 30 percent, according to Morgan Stanley. 

At 32x calendar 2018 EPS, the stock's valuation is reason enough to remain on the sidelines, Weiss said. 

Oppenheimer: Sidelined On Valuation

Oppenheimer's Brian Schwartz maintains a Perform rating on Adobe's stock with no assigned price target.

Adobe's earnings report shows that demand for Adobe's multiple products across all geographic regions continues to be "healthy," Schwartz said in a note. In addition, the report signals a return to "business as usual" for the management team, which typically means consistently good execution, strong profitability trends and financial targets, he said. 

"We view Adobe as a high-quality franchise that is well-managed," the analyst concluded. "We remain positive on its fundamentals and leading market position, but have missed the stock's run-up and thus remain sidelined on valuation."

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Posted In: Analyst ColorPrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsAdobe CloudBank of AmericaBarclaysBrian SchwartzcloudCreative CloudKash RanganMorgan StanleyOppenheimerSaket Kalia
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