Market Overview

Twitter's Overall Trends Remain Challenged, Q4 Will Be Very Critical


Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) reported better Q3 results against low expectations. The company guided to revenue deceleration and margin compression in Q4, amid its ongoing platform turnaround.

“Given the ongoing challenges we do not think a premium multiple is warranted,” SunTrust Robinson Humphrey’s Bob Peck said in a report.

Peck maintained a Hold rating on Twitter, with a price target of $18. He mentioned, “While the company beat top line expectations, the overall trends remain challenged.”

Disappointing Q4 Guidance

Twitter announced in-line guidance for FY 2016, despite the Q3 beat. The company guided to revenue growth of 2 percent and EBITDA growth of 11 percent below Wall Street expectations. The mid-point reflected merely 4 percent year-over-year revenue growth.

“The company faces both ongoing monetization challenges as well as a sales force restructuring during the busy 4Q season. We continue to think 4Q results are critical in demonstrating any potential efficacy of the current strategy (many initiatives come online in 4Q – more NFL, NBA, Bloomberg, etc.),” Peck wrote.

The analyst pointed out that in case trends continue to weaken, M&A would be “inevitable,” although this could be at lower prices in 2017.

Peck reduce the EPS estimate for 2017 from $0.62 to $0.58. The revenue and EBITDA estimates for Q4 have been reduced from $752 million to $740 million and from $193 million to $173 million, respectively.

Latest Ratings for TWTR

Nov 2019MaintainsMarket Perform
Nov 2019DowngradesIn-LineUnderperform
Oct 2019MaintainsHold

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Posted-In: Bob Peck SunTrust Robinson HumphreyAnalyst Color Reiteration Analyst Ratings


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