Market Overview

JPMorgan Downgrades Humana Following Deal Reports

JPMorgan Downgrades Humana Following Deal Reports
Related HUM
Humana, Anthem Benefit From 'Attractive' Managed Care Sector, Jefferies Says
Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For January 12, 2018
The Ideal Stock Evaluation System? (Seeking Alpha)
Related AET
18 Stocks And ETFs To Watch In 2018
Aetna Acquisition Puts CVS Growth Prospects Back In Good Health
Focused Investors LLC Buys Bank of America Corporation, CBS Corp, Sells Time Warner Inc, ... (GuruFocus)

Three credible sources, namely MLEX, Reuters and Bloomberg, have indicated that DOJ may seek to block the acquisition of Humana Inc (NYSE: HUM) by Aetna Inc (NYSE: AET). In the event the pending acquisition gets blocked by the DOJ, there would be material downside to Humana’s shares, JPMorgan’s Gary P Taylor said in a report.

The probability of deal approval has declined much below a 50/50 chance. If the deal does not come through, Humana’s shares could initially decline to as low as $115-125, analyst Gary Taylor noted. He downgraded the rating on the company from Overweight to Neutral, while reducing the price target from $196 to $150.

What’s Next?

In case the acquisition by Aetna does go through, Humana’s shares would appreciate even higher than earlier, since the probability of the deal happening has declined.

Related Link: Citi Concerned With Near-Term Risks For Contiviti, Initiates At Neutral

If the DOJ blocks the deal, Aetna may choose to litigate. Taylor pointed out, however, that companies “rarely win such challenges so the market will likely ascribe a low probability.”

Aetna owes Humana a pretax termination fee of $1b on a regulatory block. While there is some speculation of both Anthem Inc (NYSE: ANTM) and CIGNA Corporation (NYSE: CI) still being interested in acquiring Humana, the analyst mentioned that both these companies have “materially less MA overlap with HUM than AET (580k lives),” and that investors would be skeptical of a deal materializing.

Latest Ratings for HUM

Jan 2018JefferiesUpgradesHoldBuy
Jan 2018Goldman SachsInitiates Coverage OnBuy
Nov 2017Credit SuisseMaintainsNeutral

View More Analyst Ratings for HUM
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Gary P Taylor JPMorganAnalyst Color Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Best of Benzinga


Related Articles (AET + ANTM)

View Comments and Join the Discussion!