Facebook's Q3 Earnings Are Out On Wednesday: Here Is What You Need To Know

  • Shares of Facebook Inc FB broke above the $100 per share mark in late October and are higher by nearly 40 percent from a year ago.
  • The company is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Analysts are mostly positive ahead of the print and expect the company's results to echo similar positive reports by its Internet peers.

Estimize is expecting Facebook to earn $0.54 per share on revenue of $4.403 billion, while the Wall Street consensus estimate is expecting the social media company to earn $0.52 per share on revenue of $4.387 billion.

Here is a summary of what some of Wall Street's top analysts have been saying ahead of the print.

Brean: Cautious On FX, Buy On Any Weakness

Sarah Hindlian of Brean Capital commented in a note that the foreign exchange environment has worsened by 200 to 300 basis points since the company last reported its quarterly results. As such, investors should approach Wednesday's print with cautious.

Hindlian said that Facebook is expected to post total revenue of $4.396 billion, ad revenue of $4.184 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.686 billion (versus the consensus estimate of $2.712 billion) and earn $0.54 per share.

Related Link: Google, Twitter And LinkedIn Earnings Impressed… Facebook Is Next

Hindlian is expecting foreign exchange headwinds of approximately 1,190 basis points (versus 910 basis points which were reported in the prior quarter). However, the foreign exchange environment has improved so far in the fourth quarter which is expected to only impact the company by 780 basis points.

The analyst also noted that Facebook may provide some early commentary on its cost growth trajectory and she is estimating a full year fiscal 2016 non-GAAP expense of $11.851 billion, up 49 percent year-over-year. Hindlian even stated that the Street's expense growth consensus estimate of 36 percent is too low and does not include expenses for Oculus Rift.

Finally, Hindlian stated that she is bullish on Facebook's fundamentals and positive on the long-term ramping of various products including Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Oculus Rift. However, investors should be aware that rising expectations, a "premium" valuation, an adverse foreign exchange environment and the uncertainty around fiscal 2016 initial may dampen the results.

Bottom line, Hindlian recommended investors be buyers on any pullbacks as Facebook remains "one of our top long-term picks."

Shares were Buy rated with a $110 price target.

MKM Partners: Topline Growth In Focus

Rob Sanderson of MKM Partners commented in a note that upside to the Street's estimates will depend yet again on ad pricing, but perhaps even more on the Instagram ad load. The analyst is estimating the company will report revenue of $4.3172 billion, short of the 36 percent revenue growth the consensus estimate is calling for.

Sanderson also noted he has seen "conflicting anecdotes" on the amount of ads being shown across the platform. The analyst said that there appears to be a "noticeable increase" in ad loads for some users, while others "appear to have very little to none." As such, Buy-side expectations could be "somewhat inflated" and the stock should move lower if the company reports an in-line print.

Sanderson added that Facebook is unlikely to provide initial fiscal 2016 expense guidance as last year's disclosure (during Q3) was an "anomaly" and related to shares issued for the WhatsApp acquisition.

Bottom line, Facebook remains a "consensus long" given its "premium" properties which also happen to be placed within the best segment of the media landscape while management's execution continues to be "very good."

Shares were Buy rated with a $120 price target.

Nomura: High Hopes

Anthony DiClemente of Nomura commented in a note that the "lateral implication of strong results" from Facebook's Internet peers has driven the stock higher ahead of Wednesday's print.

DiClemente noted that his intra-quarter checks with Internet marketers were positive and Facebook's revenue growth is expected to decelerate by a "relatively modest" 200 basis points (80 basis points ex-forex) to 36.8 percent, or $4.38 billion.

DiClemente said video autpolay ad growth was the main driver in the quarter, while the Instagram ad amp remains "a bit conservative for the third quarter" and should provide a larger impact in the fourth quarter.

Finally, the analyst suggested that uncertainty over Facebook's 2016 expense growth remains an issue that "may give investors a degree of pause amid all the enthusiasm."

Shares were Buy rated with a $115 price target.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorPreviewsTop StoriesAnalyst RatingsTechTrading IdeasAnthony DiClementeBrean CapitalEstimizeFacebookFacebook MessengerFacebook MonetizationFacebook SpendingInstagramMKM PartnersRob SandersonSarah Hindliansocial mediaWhatsApp
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