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Credit Suisse Incrementally More Bearish On Potash Corp Despite Potash Market's 'Worst Is Over'

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Credit Suisse Incrementally More Bearish On Potash Corp Despite Potash Market's 'Worst Is Over'

  • Shares of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (USA) (NYSE: POT) have lost nearly 45 percent year-to-date and hit a new 52-week low of $19.48 on Friday.
  • Christopher Parkinson of Credit Suisse maintained an Underperform rating on the stock with a price target lowered to $29 from a previous $32.
  • Parkinson noted that while "the worst is over" for the potash market, the company's "slow and steady" strategy will hurt investors.
  • Shares of Potash Corp reached a new 52-week low of $19.48 early Friday. The stock is down nearly 45 percent year-to-date and down nearly 60 percent over the past five years.

    The Rating And Price Target

    In a report published Friday, Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Parkinson maintained an Underperform rating on Potash Corp with a price target lowered to $29 from a previous $32. According to the analyst, "the worst is over" for the potash market due to "precipitous price declines" throughout the second quarter. However, an actual recovery in the market is not on the horizon.

    Related Link: Potash: Macquarie Sees Increasingly Bearish Outlook, Struggling To Find A Catalyst

    How The 'Worst Is Over' Translates

    Parkinson continued that Potash Corp should receive credit for "moving in the right direction" with its initiatives including mine optimization. Nevertheless, it is not enough to outweigh industry wide headwinds. Meanwhile, the analyst suggested that the company's K+S bid is "excessively generous."

    Looking Forward

    Looking forward to 2016, Parkinson stated that he isn't expecting any material improvements in emerging market demand or overall farmer sentiment. As such, potash pricing is expected to be "flattish" in the first of 2016 but still lower year-over-year.

    Parkinson also stated that despite market fundamentals, the company's balance sheet is still "pristine" with "significant" optionality regarding its equity investments, which implies a dividend cut is not likely in the near term.

    Finally, Parkinson lowered his 2016 earnings per share estimate for Potash Corp to $1.80 from $1.90 given ongoing industry-wide headwinds.

    Image Credit: Public Domain

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