Oppenheimer: Buy Netflix Ahead Of Apple Event

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  • Netflix, Inc. NFLX shares are down 20 percent in the past five trading sessions.
  • Oppenheimer's Jason Helfstein reiterated the firm's Outperform rating on Netflix ahead of Wednesday's Apple Inc. AAPL event.
  • Netflix has a "significant" first-mover advantage with a global footprint that makes it the "best play" for the cord-cutting movement.

While many investors have been concerned that Apple will announce a competitive product with original programming, Netflix shares have sunk lower. The stock has lost 20 percent of its value over the past five trading sessions, while the Nasdaq Index is roughly flat.

Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer issued a new note arguing that concerns around Netflix are overblown. Oppenheimer's Apple analyst, Andrew Uerkwitz, said that the fact that Apple was talking with content executives does not mean it will move into that business, just as it did not start making music after it talked with music executives.

Related Link: Apple's TV Service Could Be 'Netflix On Steroids'

But Helfstein didn't just debunk the Apple myth. He went into all the competitive pressures facing Netflix – from Hulu to Verizon Communications Inc. VZ's Go90 to Walt Disney Co DIS's Movies Anywhere app. Oppenheimer argued that none of these pose a significant threat to Netflix's core business or growth. Verizon's Go90 is targeting younger viewers that do not pay subscription fees, while Disney's integration with iTunes and Google Inc GOOG Play are not exclusive. Helfstein predicted that "the bulk" of Disney's films, including "Star Wars," would still be available on Netflix.

While Oppenheimer has not indicated a price target for Netflix, it did forecast that U.S. and international revenues would grow at 12 and 50 percent compound annual growth rates from 2014 to 2020. At current price, the company is just valued at 13x U.S. EV/EBITDA, 3.6x U.S. EV/Sales and 6.6x International EV/Sales.

Netflix was indicated more than 1.5 percent higher in pre-market trading. Though the stock has fallen in the past week, it is still 94.5 percent higher since January 1.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorLong IdeasReiterationAnalyst RatingsTechTrading IdeasJason HelfsteinOppenheimer
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