Everything You Need To Know About Greece's Coming Referendum

In a report published Sunday, a team of UK-based analysts at Barclays discussed Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' referendum call to be held on July 5. Tsipras' referendum will ask the Greek population if they accept the latest proposal presented by the Institutions while the government supports a "no" vote. "This surprising decisions comes after meaningful progress had been achieved over the past two weeks on reform measures that would unlock the remaining funds of the second bailout," the report noted. "Most policymakers and markets expected that a deal on a programme extension was within reach before the current one expires on 30 June." The report continued that Barclays' latest survey suggested that markets have been "complacent" about Greek risk as the majority of investors believe that a Greek exist will be a "small negative" for markets and only 23 percent expect a Greek exit will be a reality within the next three months. A victory for the "no" side makes Greece's exit from the Eurozone the most likely outcome. The report suggested that European institutions would need to respond to this scenario with a "strong" institutional-reform agenda, otherwise redenomination risk could re-emerge. The report also suggested that a "yes" vote win could result in Tsipras and possibly the entire government stepping down despite other options remaining on the table, including Tsipras remaining in power and accepting the deal with the Institutions. However, if Tsipras does step down, "moderate" Syriza MPs could join other moderate parties into a national unity collation. In addition, snap elections would remain a possibility, but are unlikely to occur until after the summer with market reaction likely being "positive" immediately after the referendum.