Stifel Looks Forward To Automotive And Auto Components In 2015

James Albertine of Stifel expects 16.75 million cars to be sold in 2015, representing a 2 percent to 3 percent increase from 2014.

In a note to clients on Monday, Albertine states that persistent low fuel costs and interest rates, the middle and lower income consumers participating in the auto recovery will contribute to higher sales in the coming year.

The analyst also lists the top 10 themes investors should look out for in 2015.

• Ramping used vehicle supply drivers lower used pricing, helping to unlock pent-up consumer demand.
• Accelerated merger and acquisition activity could result in two to three transactions involving large private dealer consolidated groups.
• Middle and lower income consumers will participate in big-ticket durable spending due to lower fuel prices.
• Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) with “aging portfolios” will likely struggle to maintain share.
• Autonomous vehicles will be “within reach of consumers,” but are still decades away from any “material ramp in penetration.”
• Growth in three- to four-year-old vehicles indicate a multi-year growth opportunity for the collision market.
• Chinese driven tariff price inflation will help “buoy” U.S. aftermarket comps for larger operators.
• The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will target settlements among captive/non captive auto lenders.
• The European auto market will remain “choppy.”
• South America's auto market will remain a “drag” on suppliers and dealers.