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Morgan Stanley Says Go Long S&P 500, Short 10-Year Treasuries

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Existing Home Sales month over month will be released Thursday at 10 a.m. EDT.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) believes the readers of its report should short 10-year U.S. Treasuries and long the S&P 500. The bank uses a proprietary Real-Time Tracker to predict what Existing Home Sales will be. The RTT estimate is for +2.6 percent or 5.17 million versus consensus expectations of -0.4 percent or 5.02 million.

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The reasoning for the firm's trade view:

"In the event of a data surprise (of 2% or more), our tick data analysis (5-year history) suggests a 29-bp average price reaction for the S&P 500 and an 8-bp average price reaction (or 1-bp average yield reaction) in 10-year US Treasuries".

(Click to Enlarge)

Latest Ratings for MS

Jan 2019CitigroupUpgradesNeutralBuy
Dec 2018Credit SuisseMaintainsOutperformOutperform
Oct 2018Wells FargoUpgradesMarket PerformOutperform

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