UPDATE: Macquarie Sees 70% Probability Sprint and T-Mobile Deal Will Go Through

Shares of Sprint S are up almost two percent in Tuesday’s premarket after Macquarie upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral and put a $10.18 price target on the stock.

A key point for analyt Kevin Smithen’s upgrade is the likelihood that the Department of Justice and FCC will approve Sprint’s deal with T-Mobile TMUS. The report states, “We now think the chances of regulatory approval are ~70% based on our analysis of the DOJ complaint against AT&T, and the emergence of Comcast (WiFi) as a provider of mobile wireless telecom services, as defined by the DOJ, which sharply reduces HHI and mkt. concentration concerns in top CMAs.”

Related: Deutsche Bank Initiates On Chevron, Sees 14% Upside

The research report also lays out seven myths regarding the deal. These include: less competitiveness in urban markets, Sprint and T-Mobile are competing effectively in suburbs versus Verizon and AT&T and that Sprint and T-Mobile can afford to bid in the incentive auction.

Smithen’s bullishness is more clearly explained with the risk/reward scenario: “With 53% upside to $13.20 by end-’15 if a deal is approved vs. 17% downside to $7.25 if rejected, S shares are now the best risk/reward in US telecom.”

The raise in price target from $9.75 to $10.18 is the results of a DCF.

Posted In: Kevin SmithenMacquarieAnalyst ColorUpgradesPrice TargetAnalyst Ratings