Autodesk Resellers See 5-15% Growth, Not Forecasted Slight Decline, Says Pacific Crest

On Monday, Pacific Crest upgraded shares of Autodesk ADSK from Sector Perform to Outperform and announced a $60 price target. Analyst Brendan Barnicle's channel checks indicate resellers are “expecting 5% to 15% FQ1 (April) revenue growth, which is far better than consensus of a slight decline.” The growth will be primarily driven by upgrades and this is “the last year that Autodesk will be offering upgrades,” prompting customers to upgrade, said the analyst. Secular tailwinds from the termination of upgrades and cyclical strength in the company's end markets “should help the company to make the transition to the cloud.” Analysts are currently forecasting $1.15 of earnings per share in FY2015, but Barnicle believes “they are understated because of the move to the cloud…and would expect EPS to have been closer to $2 this year.” Shares of Autodesk are down 0.55 percent to $46.70 in Monday's trading. The $60 price target represents 28 percent upside from current levels.