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Will New Corn Prices Go Up or Down? (CORN)

July 9, 2013 11:22 am
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New crop corn prices were down last week, but came back Monday to finish at $5 per bushel. Prices continued to climb Tuesday, with December new crop corn selling for $5.08 at 10:49 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Where will prices go from here? According to Hoosier Ag Today, it all depends on whom you ask.

Monday Logan Burges, with Grain Hedge, said, “Based on the acres planted and the crop condition, I expect corn prices to move lower between now and harvest, unless we have some kind of major weather event.”

Jim Riley, with Riley Trading, said he sees prices moving higher ahead of Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report. Riley said he thinks that new crop corn could reach $5.20.

A major long-term determining factor, when it comes to corn prices, according to Farm Futures, will be the weather during the pollination period at the end of July. If the weather is unusually dry, that has an adverse effect on pollination and the per acre yield will be lower – raising prices overall. Some forecast models called for dry, hot weather toward the end of the month in some major corn-growing regions.

Other forecasts, however, indicate normal to slightly above normal precipitation in many areas, boosting the continuing argument for bumper crops and lower prices. Farm Futures reported that Monday’s Crop Progress report indicated improving conditions overall nationwide. This could add as much as three quarters of a bushel to yields, bringing total U.S. average per acre yield to 159.75 bushels.

These numbers are more in line with earlier predictions of a record-setting corn harvest in 2013, based on total amount of seed planted and favorable planting conditions this past spring.

Related: Corn Hits New Low, Larger Yield Expected

Besides the weather, the other major factor affecting corn prices is demand with much of that coming from foreign countries. Export Inspections Monday reported 8.2 million bushels, which is below the USDA forecast. As a result, year-to-date inspections are down 56 percent, compared with government expectations of a 53 percent decline.

Those figures, however, refer to old crop corn from 2012. The numbers for 2013 are more encouraging. For example, USDA announced the sale of 7.725 million bushels of new crop corn to Mexico, South Korea bought 4.725 million bushels of new crop corn ahead of Thursday’s USDA report, and Taiwan ordered 2.4 million bushels of September corn.

In early trading Tuesday, Teucrium Corn (NYSE: CORN) ETF was up $0.57 or 1.5 percent at $38.47.

As of this writing, Jim Probasco had no position in the Teucrium Corn ETF.

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