Sunday night, the global strategy team at Credit Suisse released a note highlighting a whole a basket of stocks for the recent move higher in the yen, and for what they see as the next large leg in a secular devaluation of the currency.
The note followed the bank's core view that they see the USD/JPY rate rising to 120 in 12-months.
Yen Forecast
The bank reiterated its USD/JPY forecast at 120 for the next 12 months, although they noted that "recent events have skewed the risk lower" for a slightly lower target. Nevertheless, they evaluate the impact of the weaker yen and strong dollar on several companies, not just in terms of currency conversion effects but also on demand and gross revenue effects.
"Japanese corporates have benefits to reap both from enhanced competitiveness and stronger domestic demand," they wrote. "In typical fashion, many analysts have been quick to price in the obvious translational impact of currency moves but are, we believe, conservative in assumptions of volume growth – positive or negative."
Related: Chinese Manufacturing Slumps Further In June; Liquidity Crunch Hurts Small Businesses.
"We flag the typical relationships and pair trades that emerge around the fortunes of currency shifts. Despite protestations to the contrary, it has not proved that different this time and it is a brave man who would stand in the way of the typical axes surrounding the manufacturing sectors and markets around which yen moves have traded in the past."
Notably, they highlight that the Japanese resurgence is bearish for emerging markets. "There is a fundamental challenge for the embattled emerging markets here."
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