In a report published Friday, BMO Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on Ingredion INGR, and raised its price target from $74.00 to $83.00.
BMO Capital Markets noted, “We gain confidence that INGR is a multi-year story with earnings upside in 2013 and over the long term, as its 10%-12% long-term earnings growth target is not only achievable but conservative. First, we would not be surprised if INGR achieved at least 8%-10% EPS growth in 2013 largely driven by 1) modest North America margin expansion reflecting stable HFCS dollar margins and cost savings; 2) a steady recovery in demand, particularly in South America and Asia; 3) resilient North American HFCS demand; 4) more robust South America operating profit growth; and 5) potential share repurchases. Second, INGR's initial guidance has been overtly conservative, as it exceeded its initial guidance by 900-1,800 basis points over the last decade. Third, INGR's long-term growth rate appears conservative by at least 200 basis points (and as much as 500 basis points) given 1) outperformance in emerging markets; 2) returns on capex; and 3) a mix shift toward specialty starches. Fourth, INGR's track record provides a fairly compelling argument that INGR could exceed its long-term growth target, as its rolling 5-year EPS CAGR averaged 20% since 2006.”
Ingredion closed on Thursday at $64.88.
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