Morgan Stanley lowers its rating on Chesapeake Energy CHK to Hold from Buy and cuts its price target from $28 to $22 following the recent outlook on natural gas and the company's exposure to the sector.
Morgan Stanley notes, "While we recently lowered our 2012 composite spot natural gas price forecast to $2.40/MMBtu, we believe the risk is more skewed to the downside rather than the upside. Similarly, we believe the same holds true for our 2013 forecast of $3.85/MMBtu, particularly in light of perhaps more upside to our domestic natural gas production projections given the continued success from new and emerging liquids-rich plays which are precluding any sharp drop in overall dry natural gas production. Every $0.10/MMBtu change in our 2012 natural gas price forecast impacts our CFPS estimate for CHK by ~2.3%, which is the highest sensitivity in our coverage group wherein the average is a 0.8% change."
CHK closed at $19.84Guggenheim on Friday.
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